Transport refrigeration demand for low-GWP refrigerants intensified as regulatory timelines and supplier shifts accelerated realignment. Retrofits increased sharply in 2023-2024, with replacement orders exceeding 1.8 million new-system-equivalents globally, according to market data. The regulatory phase-down of HFCs in major regions intensified demand for low-GWP alternatives, particularly in transport refrigeration.
Background
Regulatory mandates are driving the transition to lower-impact refrigerants. The EU's F-Gas Regulation tightened GWP limits, restricting refrigerants such as R-404A (GWP ~3920) for many systems in 2024 and advancing phase-down targets. In the U.S., the AIM Act imposed staged HFC reductions, with production and consumption capped at 60 percent of baseline levels in 2024. The EPA's Technology Transition rule introduced application-specific GWP thresholds for refrigeration systems. These measures have restricted high-GWP refrigerant supply and required transition planning by manufacturers and end users. Regulatory pressures have shifted the market toward HFO blends and natural refrigerants, including CO₂ and hydrocarbons.
Details
In 2023-2024, more than 1.2 million commercial units were retrofitted to lower-GWP refrigerants. Natural refrigerants accounted for over 30 percent of new commercial refrigeration installations in 2024. Transport refrigeration retrofits drove a significant share of the 1.8 million new-system-equivalent orders. Over 4,000 stores worldwide installed CO₂ transcritical and cascade systems, while hydrocarbon systems surpassed 500,000 units in light commercial and vending applications. These trends reflect regulatory influence and supplier advancements in refrigerant technology.
Manufacturing shifts continued: fluorocarbons and fluoro-olefins comprised 66.6 percent of the low-GWP refrigerant market in 2025, with an estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 8 percent through 2031. In transport applications, CO₂ is trialed for cold-climate routes, while HFO blends are favored elsewhere due to sensitivity to ambient temperatures.
Retrofit challenges persist. CO₂ system retrofits cost 15-30 percent more than HFC alternatives due to high-pressure requirements. The flammability of hydrocarbons such as R-290 raises installation costs and safety requirements. Ammonia's toxicity limits its use in populated areas. Workforce training shortages further hinder adoption: a European contractor survey found only 6 percent trained with CO₂, 11 percent with hydrocarbons, and 12 percent with ammonia. Training programs remain largely theoretical, especially outside Northern Europe. AREA, representing EU RACHP contractors, has called for mandatory EU-wide training standards to address this. Estimated training costs per technician can reach up to €3,000, excluding personal protective equipment.
Outlook
Retrofit activity and equipment retirements are expected to continue as regulatory deadlines approach. Industry participants must increase technician training and strengthen supply chain readiness. Consistent safety standards and expanded practical training are likely to shape the transport refrigeration sector's transition to low-GWP solutions.
